Financial model — 36-month projection
Pre-seed financial model for Jobab. All numbers in BDT and USD (1 USD ≈ ৳110). Conservative assumptions — adjust to your own confidence after pilot data comes in.
How to use this
Numbers below are a starting template. Copy the tables into Google Sheets and tweak the assumption cells. The downloadable CSV at the bottom imports straight into Sheets / Excel.
Assumptions
Pricing (from the pitch deck)
| Tier | Monthly | Annual | Conversations/mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | ৳999 ($9) | ৳9,990 ($90) | up to 500 |
| Growth | ৳2,999 ($27) | ৳29,990 ($272) | up to 2,500 + WhatsApp |
| Pro | ৳7,999 ($73) | ৳79,990 ($727) | unlimited + multi-page + team |
Plan mix: 60% Starter, 30% Growth, 10% Pro at launch. Shifts toward Growth (40% Starter, 45% Growth, 15% Pro) by month 24 as merchants outgrow Starter.
Blended ARPU:
- Months 1–12: ~৳1,899/mo ($17/mo)
- Months 13–36: ~৳3,099/mo ($28/mo)
Churn
- Monthly logo churn: 4% (industry norm for SMB SaaS in emerging markets)
- Annual gross retention: ~62%
- Annual net retention: ~85% (upgrades partially offset churn)
COGS per conversation
| Cost | Amount |
|---|---|
| Groq tokens (Llama 3.3, ~2k tokens/conv) | $0.0015 |
| Vision (Llama 4 Scout, ~30% of conversations) | $0.0010 |
| Embeddings (Jina, ~10% of conversations) | $0.0002 |
| Total per conversation | $0.003 (~৳0.33) |
Average merchant on Growth tier uses ~1,500 conversations/month → COGS per merchant ≈ ৳495/mo ($4.5). Gross margin on Growth: ~85%.
WhatsApp message templates billed pass-through (cost equals revenue, no margin) — kept out of unit economics.
Fixed infrastructure
| Item | Cost/mo |
|---|---|
| Backend hosting (Render Standard) | $30 |
| Postgres + Redis (managed) | $40 |
| Domain + email + observability (Sentry, Langfuse free tiers) | $0 |
| Misc (sandbox, CDN, error tracking overage) | $30 |
| Total | ~$100/mo (৳11,000) |
Scales linearly above 500 merchants — bump to ~$300/mo at 1,000 merchants.
Hiring plan + salaries (Dhaka rates)
| Role | Start month | Monthly cost (BDT) | Monthly cost (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founder (you) | M1 | ৳150,000 | $1,360 |
| Senior full-stack engineer | M4 | ৳200,000 | $1,820 |
| Merchant ops / success | M6 | ৳80,000 | $730 |
| Fractional CFO (4 hr/week) | M12 | ৳60,000 | $545 |
| Second engineer | M18 | ৳180,000 | $1,635 |
| BD lead / partnerships | M24 | ৳120,000 | $1,090 |
(Numbers are gross salary including taxes + benefits, approximate.)
Other operating costs
| Item | Cost/mo |
|---|---|
| Marketing (FB ads + content + outreach) | $500 → $2,000 by M12 |
| Legal + accounting | $200 |
| Software (Notion, Vercel, etc.) | $100 |
| Office (co-working desk × 1–3) | $200 → $600 |
Acquisition assumptions
- CAC: ৳3,500 ($32) — mix of organic + paid + merchant referrals
- Activation rate: 40% of trials → paid by day 14
- Average merchant lifetime: 25 months (1 / monthly churn, gross)
- LTV: ~৳60,000 ($545) at blended ARPU after M12
- LTV : CAC target: 17:1 (very healthy; emerging-market SaaS norm is 5:1+)
- Payback period: ~2 months
Growth ramp (paying merchants)
| Quarter | Months | Paying merchants (end) | New merchants/mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-launch (pilot) | M1–M3 | 5 (free) | 0 paying |
| Post-App-Review launch | M4–M6 | 25 | 7 |
| EOY1 push | M7–M12 | 100 | 13 |
| Y2 scale | M13–M18 | 250 | 25 |
| Y2 finish | M19–M24 | 500 | 42 |
| Y3 momentum | M25–M36 | 1,200 | 58 |
Conservative — assumes only ~50% of trials convert and 4% monthly churn. Real growth often surprises in either direction once a market is found.
36-month P&L summary (USD)
| Month | Merchants | MRR | COGS | Gross profit | OpEx | Net (burn) | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M3 | 5 (free) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,200 | -$2,200 | -$6,600 |
| M6 | 25 | $425 | $113 | $312 | $4,400 | -$4,088 | -$24,000 |
| M9 | 60 | $1,020 | $270 | $750 | $4,400 | -$3,650 | -$50,000 |
| M12 | 100 | $1,700 | $450 | $1,250 | $5,800 | -$4,550 | -$78,000 |
| M18 | 250 | $7,000 | $1,125 | $5,875 | $8,200 | -$2,325 | -$110,000 |
| M24 | 500 | $14,000 | $2,250 | $11,750 | $10,400 | $1,350 | -$118,000 |
| M30 | 800 | $22,400 | $3,600 | $18,800 | $11,500 | $7,300 | -$95,000 |
| M36 | 1,200 | $33,600 | $5,400 | $28,200 | $13,000 | $15,200 | -$25,000 |
Cash-flow positive around M24. Cumulative burn peaks ~$120K — well within a $400K seed round, with buffer for slower-than-modeled growth.
ARR trajectory:
- EOY1: $20K ARR
- EOY2: $168K ARR
- EOY3: $403K ARR
Series-A-ready ($500K–$1M ARR + 100%+ NRR) achievable by M30–M36 if growth holds.
Use of funds ($400K seed)
| Bucket | Amount | % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engineering | $160K | 40% | 1 senior eng × 18 months, plus founder runway |
| Merchant operations | $100K | 25% | Hiring + onboarding 100 merchants |
| Marketing | $60K | 15% | Paid acquisition + content + events |
| Infrastructure | $60K | 15% | LLM tokens, hosting, scaling |
| Buffer | $20K | 5% | Legal, contingencies |
Key metrics dashboard (what to track from M1)
These are the numbers an investor will ask for at every check-in. Track them weekly.
| Metric | Formula | M3 target | M12 target | M24 target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paying merchants | end-of-month count | 0 | 100 | 500 |
| MRR | sum of monthly subscriptions | $0 | $1,700 | $14,000 |
| New merchants added | per month | n/a | 13 | 42 |
| Logo churn | merchants lost / starting | <8% | <5% | <4% |
| CAC | sales+marketing spend / new merchants | n/a | <$40 | <$35 |
| LTV | ARPU × gross margin × lifetime months | n/a | $400 | $545 |
| LTV : CAC | ratio | n/a | 10:1+ | 15:1+ |
| Gross margin | (revenue – COGS) / revenue | n/a | 75% | 85% |
| Burn rate | cash out / month | -$2K | -$5K | break-even |
| Runway | cash / burn rate | depends on raise | 18 mo | infinite |
Sensitivity analysis
What happens if the model is wrong? Three scenarios.
1. Slow growth (50% of plan)
| EOY1 | EOY2 | EOY3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchants | 50 | 125 | 600 |
| MRR | $850 | $3,500 | $16,800 |
| Cumulative burn | -$90K | -$175K | -$245K |
Action: Raise extends to 30 months; consider bridge in M24.
2. Plan (base case)
| EOY1 | EOY2 | EOY3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchants | 100 | 500 | 1,200 |
| MRR | $1,700 | $14,000 | $33,600 |
| Cumulative burn | -$78K | -$118K | -$25K |
Action: Raise Series A in M24–M30 at $5M+ pre-money.
3. Fast growth (150% of plan)
| EOY1 | EOY2 | EOY3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchants | 150 | 750 | 2,000 |
| MRR | $2,550 | $21,000 | $56,000 |
| Cumulative burn | -$70K | -$80K | break-even M22 |
Action: Raise Series A in M18 at $10M+ pre-money, expand to Pakistan / Nepal.
Things investors will challenge
| Challenge | Honest response |
|---|---|
| "Your CAC assumption is low." | Validate during pilot. If real CAC is 3x, raise more or grow slower. |
| "4% monthly churn is optimistic for SMB." | True. We bake in 8% in the slow scenario. |
| "ARPU might be lower in BD." | Yes — that's why Growth is the target tier, not Pro. Plan mix shifts up over time. |
| "Why ~$400K, not $1M?" | $400K gets to break-even with one engineer + one ops hire. $1M would buy faster growth but isn't needed to prove the model. |
| "Why not transaction fees instead of subscription?" | BD merchants distrust transaction fees (negative anchoring from F-commerce middlemen). Flat SaaS converts better in interviews. |
CSV export
Copy this into a .csv file and import to Google Sheets. The first row is the header; each row is a month.
month,merchants_paying,new_merchants,churned_merchants,arpu_usd,mrr_usd,cogs_usd,gross_profit_usd,opex_usd,net_usd,cumulative_burn_usd
1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1360,-1360,-1360
2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1360,-1360,-2720
3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2200,-2200,-4920
4,8,8,0,17,136,36,100,4400,-4300,-9220
5,15,7,0,17,255,68,187,4400,-4213,-13433
6,25,11,1,17,425,113,312,4400,-4088,-17521
7,38,14,1,17,646,171,475,4400,-3925,-21446
8,48,11,1,17,816,216,600,4400,-3800,-25246
9,60,13,1,17,1020,270,750,4400,-3650,-28896
10,72,13,1,17,1224,324,900,5800,-4900,-33796
11,86,15,1,17,1462,387,1075,5800,-4725,-38521
12,100,15,1,17,1700,450,1250,5800,-4550,-43071
13,118,19,1,21,2478,635,1843,8200,-6357,-49428
14,138,21,1,21,2898,742,2156,8200,-6044,-55472
15,160,23,1,21,3360,860,2500,8200,-5700,-61172
16,184,25,1,21,3864,989,2875,8200,-5325,-66497
17,210,27,1,21,4410,1129,3281,8200,-4919,-71416
18,250,41,1,28,7000,1125,5875,8200,-2325,-73741
19,290,41,1,28,8120,1305,6815,9300,-2485,-76226
20,335,46,1,28,9380,1508,7872,9300,-1428,-77654
21,380,46,1,28,10640,1710,8930,9300,-370,-78024
22,425,46,1,28,11900,1913,9988,9300,688,-77336
23,460,36,1,28,12880,2070,10810,9300,1510,-75826
24,500,41,1,28,14000,2250,11750,10400,1350,-74476
25,545,46,1,28,15260,2453,12808,11500,1308,-73168
26,605,61,1,28,16940,2723,14218,11500,2718,-70450
27,665,61,1,28,18620,2993,15628,11500,4128,-66322
28,725,61,1,28,20300,3263,17038,11500,5538,-60784
29,775,51,1,28,21700,3488,18213,11500,6713,-54071
30,800,26,1,28,22400,3600,18800,11500,7300,-46771
31,855,56,1,28,23940,3848,20093,13000,7093,-39678
32,915,61,1,28,25620,4117,21503,13000,8503,-31175
33,985,71,1,28,27580,4433,23148,13000,10148,-21027
34,1060,76,1,28,29680,4770,24910,13000,11910,-9117
35,1130,71,1,28,31640,5085,26555,13000,13555,4438
36,1200,71,1,28,33600,5400,28200,13000,15200,19638Cash-flow positive month 35. Adjust assumption cells in Sheets to model your own scenarios.
Next
- Pitch deck — the 12-slide outline that uses these numbers
- Status — current product state for the "traction" slide
- Channel plan — the launch sequence that drives merchant ramp